The muffler man has the last laugh

When a national TV channel flashed 67-3, I, for a moment, thought that it was the customary Pakistani score card in a ODI cricket match.  On reconciling with the electoral reading of the Delhi election results, Arvind Kejriwal was declared as the man-of-the-match, who showed in no unequivocal terms that he can sweep and reverse-sweep.  The Delhi verdict clarified that there were few contenders, most of them  comprehensively swept under the rug. The Congress party scored a golden ‘duck’ and the paltry three seats confirmed the BJP humiliation complete.

The common man was taken casually for someone who wears muffler to fight cold and cough. But here is some one who showed he can fight the mighty and the corrupt, too.  Whether the vote is against Modi or Bedi, the clear winner is Arvind Kejriwal, the muffler man had the last laugh. If 1977 were Janata-wave, 1984 Rajiv Gandhi-wave, the 1989 V P Singh-wave, 2015 can be named a “Kejriwal-wave”, partly denting the 2014 modi-wave.  Sniffing that the Bedi-factor may not work, the BJP drafted the entire central leadership for the campaign. The phenomenal political event may well have major consequences for the national domain, as the 67-3 score-card applied the brakes on what looked like an unstoppable pan-India ride to power.  Rarely has there been an occasion in Indian politics when a party scripted such a massive victory, reminding the AIADMK-Congress alliance winning 225/234 seats in 1991.

While this victory is AAP’s defining moment for the future, the 46-year old IITian showed that agenda can outsmart propaganda and desisted from indulging in counter-smear campaign.  Calling him “urban naxalite”, bhagoda (runaway, escapist) and more, never behoved a Prime Minister to get down to name-calling.  When Mani Shankar Aiyar derided the chaiwallah, the PM was backed, but the latter did not replicate the courtesy. A few more vitrolics, AAP would, probably, have scored a centum – 70/70.  The recent attacks on the churches had its share in affecting the BJP’s poll prospects, the muslim-vote seems shifted in AAP’s favour.  Mind you, it is not a photo-finish, but a landslide victory.

Wake-up call

No state election is referendum of central government.  Good or bad central government affects state election results, not vice-versa.  But ensure that it doesn’t become one, as we all know only too well it doesn’t take long for a spark to become an inferno. BJP, nevertheless, exposed its vulnerability in a direct contest. In 2013-14, the Congress party was left bewildered by the AAP which came from nowhere to steal its thunder.  Arvind Kejriwal deserves standing ovation for his dare-devilry in making substantive inroads into the national parties, one after the other.  Though AAP did not win a single seat in Delhi in the Lok Sabha election, Kejriwal remained steadfast to his ground.

The voting pattern showed that it was a mass exodus from Congress to AAP.  Usually a vote lost from Congress goes to BJP.  But this time, it went to AAP, and in a big way. The electorate reckoned that a Congress vote is a wasted vote. Apart from maintaining positive posture, AAP also had the grace to seek apology from the electorate for its earlier missteps. The ‘broom’ swept clean and revived the sinking ship, the democracy, exhibiting the presence of a much-needed opposition.

                                

Modi should take the onus for the Delhi debacle, else there is little to distinguish him from the dynastic ‘Gandhis’.  BJP’s enormous resource base had to give way for the ‘common man’, happily showing democracy is not dead, yet.  Thousands of people including students, lawyers, retired professionals, college professors and housewives see AAP a new phenomenon which renewed their faith for a better future of the common man.  The story of AAP, in fact, is not just its story, but a story of the people, reinventing politics and themselves.

AAP must move beyond fighting corruption.  It is vital for Kejriwal to have a strong cadre before taking policies to the masses. Having said that, running a political party and maintaining a vibrant cadre is tough especially  in national scenario and we have many examples where many parties failed to maintain their establishments and shut their shops after one or two general elections.  Praja Rajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh started by the matinee-idol Chiranjeevi failed to reach its expectations, so is Uma Bharathi’s Bharatiya Jan Shakthi Party.  Former IAS Officer and often considered to be an intellectual bureaucrat Jaya Prakash Narayan’s Lok Satta too could not move into the masses.  These cases show that the vote bank and election foray in India is altogether a different and a difficult game that a person like Arvind Kejriwal needs to tackle with.

The common man’s life has been miserable by the unabated price rise. FMs,  Planning Commission officials and advisory councils have been ad nauseum assuring that the prices will go down, while the common man remains in dark.  If Kejriwal makes even a small difference to the popular perception of politics, he will have done a lot.  And Kejriwal will surely experience for himself the challenge of practising politics without its attendant ills.  People of  Delhi have sent a strong message to the politicians and political parties how they should behave.

If political honesty is oxymoron, Mr. Kejriwal, the mandate has bestowed you a chance to dispute it.

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Onion’s unrivalled political charisma

The spectre of onion prices appear stabilised at Rs.35/- a kg, while the retail outlets are non-committal about the consistency, the pungency might be showing yet again.  A raging debate not only for  consumers, but economists and policy makers as well, the vegetable is routinely consumed and any spike tends to be politically sensitive. Last year, a truck was hijacked on the Delhi-Jaipur highway.  The precious cargo was 40 tonnes of onions.  A few eat-outs, last year,  suspended serving “onion dosas”.  The North Indian kebabs without the raw onion will lose its pride.  In rural India, a bowl of rice and onion is used as an indicator of poverty. The public anger over food inflation, if not controlled, can spoil the honeymoon period of the new government, which is empowered and has secured mandate.

With a bumper crop 19 m tonnes , a 14 per cent increase over the previous year, already reported, it defies logic for the price to rise, whereas the consumption  is about 15 m tonnes.    The toils of the farmers are gone astray while the ultimate consumers are bearing high costs, distinctly depicting the lack of magnitude afforded to agriculture in recent times. Indications are that onion price will surge by September as the stocks are expected to be exhausted by then, the delay in SW monsoon notwithstanding.   The consumers’ owes soar with the dawn of the rainy season and the intermediaries and hoarders silently encash the opportunities.  Short-term solutions like importing the vegetable and curbing the exports only does more long-term damages.

Onion growers have also claimed that they are pained by the non-availability of quality seeds.  According to National Co-operative Agricultural Marketing Federation (NAFED), “onion seeds are currently costing Rs.3,000/- a kg. as against Rs.400/- during normal times”.    India is one of the largest onion producers along with US and China. 

Last year, the erstwhile Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar asked the Chief Ministers to invoke the Essential Commodities Act against onion hoarders.  Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has recently blamed the hoarders and asked the state governments to act, while Modi asked the people to “be ready to swallow bitter pills”.  Read in tangency, not only likely it is to see the hoarders’ role in the price crisis of the edible bulb, but asking the common man to be prepared for a spurt.  The price has been rising across the country, especially in Modi’s town Ahmedabad, where it recently touched Rs.56/- a kg.

The high price of the vegetable has given the opposition parties an agenda.  Isn’t it minimal that controlling the middle-men can improve the supply chain considerably? According to National Horticulture and Research Foundation, the “price has gone up and it may increase further”.The government must procure directly from the farmer at a fair price, enable modern storage facilities to regulate flow into the market and make it unremunerative for the middlemen.

Traders operating in the local market committees stock the  onions, which they procured from the farmer for a paltry price less than Rs.10/- a kg. and stored it, which has a shelf life of upto six months.  The hoarders and big traders have got the taste of blood last year which forced onion prices to dictate Rs.100/- and above.  It is hoped the big daddies are not resorting to American policy of dumping the produce into the sea and jack up the prices.

Need for more than quick-fix solutions

Reform of procurement practices and agricultural marketing is overdue.  Being a State subject, the Centre even a decade ago circulated amendments to Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act.  The main amendment targeted at minimising the wholesale dominance in the marketing chain.  High onion price has been a key factor for the ugly food inflation.  Retail inflation quickened to 8.59 per cent in April from 8.31 per cent in March, primarily driven by food prices.  At the moment, RBI is more worried about tackling inflation, which is necessary for sustaining economic growth in the long-term, while the central bank at the same time would need some clarity on how the monsoon will pan out and the impending union budget.  Lower rainfall may pinch farm output and spur inflation.  Modi, who steered the BJP to a thumping victory in the last three decades, has induced  the optimism that he will take measures to boost economic growth.

The returns of the farmer and cost to the end-user shows a yawning-gap and thus the enormous returns in the supply chain of agri-produce are usurped by the intermediary forces.  Probably the sapping phenomenon is also a reason for the youth being averse to pursue farming.  Among the host of interventions required to induce vibrancy in the sector, reforms in the APMC are paramount that will ensure remunerative price to the primary producer and eliminate the other villainous forces, which can be in any form – bad crops, market forces, over-export or hoarders.  At times, it takes the form of nationwide transport when essential goods are not available and price rise.   That the economy’s health is at stake, will Modi be able to crack the whip? The speculation that onion hitting the three-digit mark by September might lead to further hoarding.  And it sounds vulgar.  The government should thoughtfully consider take-over of all onion warehouses and start selling through Public Distribution System. 

Onion is said to be good for heart, but the unfriendly price movement is not conducive to the organ that pumps blood and continue its business as usual.   The existing monopolistic control of APMC must be dismantled.  Is it a rocketry for farmers to build storage sheds? 

The Centre should come up with more than quick-fix solutions, else the parties may have to pay a political price.  The 1998-Delhi Assembly election debacle for BJP is attributed to the rising price of “onion” factor.  Maharashtra, the main hub for growing onions, must pro-actively show urgency in tackling the hoarders and where the stocks are piled up.  There is no gainsaying the fact that most of the 300-odd local market committees that control the price of onions in Nasik district of Maharashtra are henpecked by politicians.   Also, this could be a harbinger of the Congress fall, if the Centre exhibits the political will to control the surge in onion price.Export curbs on onions would have little impact on the prices of the commodity, as the price of Indian onion is more than local price abroad. Onion can be a game-changer.

Congress, good riddance

“India has won.  Good days are coming again”, tweeted  a beaming and victorious Narendra Modi.

The Congress touched its lowest ever tally in the 16^th Lok Sabha election, raising  serious questions about its political future.  The party failed to open its account in some states and could not reach the double digit in any state.  The 128-year old party has been pulverised, the results corroborating it as a rejection of “dynastic politics”.  The last nail has been hammered on the coffin of the Congress party’s brand.  People showed that they can be ruthless in punishing erring parties.  The Congress party is synonymous with corruption.  On the poll day, the people dutifully discharged their electoral obligations, remembering  2G scam, coalgate, CWG scam, DLF-Vadra scam …. the list is long.

The BJP has finally become an all-India party, winning seats all over the country on its own, not in just a few states.

The Sonia Gandhi’s Congress fought this LS polls not to win, but attempted more on a negative agenda – to prevent Modi  from becoming the PM.  They also mistakenly believed that the Advani-Modi fraction will play to its political gain.  They did not show anything to convince about development, containing inflation and job creation. 

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination over two decades ago created sympathy wave for his widow Sonia Gandhi.  No such tragedy happened this LS polls.  The Nehru-Gandhi label has lost its sheen in India.  This election has recorded more of youth electorate, for many of whom Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi are mere historical figures, and for others also it becoming a distant memory. 

It is also not surprising that Rahul Gandhi, given his political IQ, is unable to bring any significant impact for the Party in the recent polls.

The anti-corruption movement initiated by Anna Hazare and subsequent emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) firmly generated the anti-Congress mood.  The 2G scam (2010) triggered the momentum for the impending disaster.  The think-tanks of the Party failed to foresee the writings, let alone take any corrective measures.  They sucked and looted India like parasites.

 A serious wake-up call

It calls for a forthright introspection.  If you think of internal reforms, this is the first reform: Self-critique.  The party is rudderless.  When you are routed in an election so badly as the Congress has been, you might not even see yourself in the Opposition. “Enough was enough” is the resounding message of the people.  A BJP victory can be synonymously dished out as Congress decimation.  Interestingly, the verdict says it loud and clear that no price is to be paid to any LS Member to help forming a government. 

If Modi, in the next  5 years, doesn’t commit any blunders, even if he doesn’t do anything good to the nation, it will be good enough to bury the “dynastic party” to its abysmal depth.

The political role of the Indian National Congress must have been long over.  Mahatma Gandhi demanded this soon after India attained independence.  The Congress today is only a fake avatar of the original Congress party of stalwarts and freedom fighters.  Sadly, the bankruptcy of Congress has seen to it that it had to rely on foreign origin, once led by Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Patel and the likes.

Can new leaders be created?

Is “Charismatic Priyanka” , wife of the land baron who is the very definition of cronyism, the answer for the future  of the Party?  That opens up a bigger debate.  If yes, will it tantamount to undermining the Rahul’s role?    Rahul Gandhi, probably a boy was sent to do a man’s job?  The Gandhian appeal, name and dynasty suddenly and instantly crumbled.  Or, Congress sans dynasty can make a better equation?  Or does the equation opens up a choice of a defunct outfit?

Let the national party sit in the Opposition for a full term and contemplate on quality governance.  A tall ask, of course.  For the Congress, the task is to rediscover itself.  One way is the Party must cooperate in the House.  A rethink from the Party’s perspective is certainly warranted, urgently. 

If you see in a different perspective, the Congress party has no worries about its future.  If Congress tows the Nehru dynasty, the party has no future and has no worries.  Whereas, if it builds up a new party independent of the Nehru family, then it needs to worry about how to contest and win the elections in the future.

It was arrogance to the extreme when the Congress President and Vice-President showed no respect or appreciation of Indian voters for their democratic maturity.  The two have clearly demonstrated that they don’t belong to this land. If any self-respecting Congressmen from the original Indian National Congress  is still left in the Party, he should file a petition with the Election Commission to bar the trio (Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka) from using the Congress name any further. Those who offered tea-boy’s job will have to stand in queue to apply for sweeper’s job in Modi’s office.

Mahatma Gandhi saw its birth.  It will be Sonia Gandhi who will be overseeing its demise.

It is a fall which will be good for the country. Amen.

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Also read:

http://kmurthy608.blogspot.in/2014/01/mani-shankar-aiyar-hosts-tea-party.html

http://kmurthy608.blogspot.in/2014/01/congress-then-and-now.html